Thursday, March 19, 2009

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Citigroup cheers markets but economies still bleak

Citigroup said it was profitable in the first two months of 2009 and Toshiba was reported to be set for an operating profit of $1 billion (730.8 million pounds) next year, two rare shards of corporate news to lift markets.
Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, following a strong rally on Wall Street, but economic news remained gloomy.
Wholesale prices in Japan fell in February by the biggest margin in six years, prompting warnings that deflationary pressures are spreading through the economy and have already filtered down to consumer goods.
The International Monetary Fund said the world economy was gripped by a "Great Recession" and would contract this year in what Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said would be the "worst performance in most of our lifetimes."
Most rich countries are already in recession, with Germany and France reporting more grim data on Tuesday, and a report from a think tank on Wednesday said Britain's recession deepened in the three months to February.
But Citigroup's improved performance prompted hopes the shattered banking system, kept afloat by massive government bailouts in the United States and other industrialized countries could be through the worst of the crisis.
Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit, whose company's share price fell below $1 last week, told employees it was having its best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of 2007.
"I am most encouraged with the strength of our business so far in 2009," Pandit wrote in a memo to staff on Monday. "We are profitable through the first two months of 2009."
Citigroup earned $2.2 billion in the July-September period in 2007, the last quarter it made money. It has since posted five straight quarterly losses totaling about $37.5 billion.
TOSHIBA PERFORMANCE TURNING?
In Japan, where many leading firms have cut production and jobs to cope with a collapse in exports, the Nikkei business newspaper reported that Toshiba would likely see an operating profit of 100 billion yen (742 billion pounds) for the year to March 2010.
That contrasts with the consensus estimate for a 103 billion yen loss in a poll of 13 analysts by Reuters Estimates. Toshiba's shares jumped more than 8 percent.
Hit by sliding prices and sluggish demand for semiconductors, Toshiba, the world's No.2 maker of NAND flash memory after Samsung Electronics, has projected an operating loss in the year to the end of March 31 of 280 billion yen.
The Toshiba news added to the bullish mood in Tokyo's share market, where the Nikkei share average jumped 4 percent to bounce from a 26-year closing low on Tuesday. The rise followed gains of around 6 percent for the main U.S. stock indexes.
"Investors have been overly risk-averse and tried to shrink their positions both in Japan and the United States, but this attitude may ease a bit after bank shares that had been weak for so long pushed up Wall Street," said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management.
"But the real economy hasn't improved and sentiment remains the same. We'll just need to see if the rally will end today or continue tomorrow and beyond."
The worst financial crisis since the 1930s stemmed from huge losses on risky U.S. housing loans, which in turn triggered a dramatic drying up of credit, and has spread through the rich world and into trade-dependent emerging economies.
ECONOMIC GLOOM
Despite Wednesday's relief in the stock market, Japan remains on course for its longest recession in modern times and the government, which has already proposed its biggest ever budget to revive the economy, faces calls to do more to support growth.
Japanese wholesale prices fell 1.1 percent in February from a year earlier, accelerating sharply from 0.3 percent annual drop seen in January.
In another gloomy sign, core machinery orders fell 3.2 percent in January as companies cut spending in response to a global downturn that is pushing Japan into the worst recession since World War Two.
"Price declines are spreading from materials to other goods, and consumer prices are likely to start falling," said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas. "Japan is likely to enter a mild deflationary period."
China reported on Tuesday that consumer prices fell in the year to February for the first time in six years following two months of falling wholesale prices.
Deflation sets off warning flags for policy makers because it can lead to a drag on consumption as shoppers hold back in expectations of yet more price falls. Protracted deflation also increases the read burden on those repaying debts.
Finance ministers from the G20 group of rich nations and emerging powers will meet this weekend in Britain to prepare for a summit in London on April 2, where leaders hope to present a united front in tackling the crisis.
Summit host Britain is one of the industrialized nations hardest hit by the recession.
The British economy shrank by 1.8 percent in the three months to February, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said on Wednesday, following a fall of 1.7 percent in the three months to January.
The think tank predicted the pace of decline would only begin to slow when businesses finish destocking.
"It is possible that increased availability of bank credit may make it easier for businesses to finance stocks and thus slow the rate of contraction," NIESR said


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Banks drive Asian markets bounce

Asian markets took up where US and European markets left off and surged ahead after news that Citigroup made a profit in the first two months of 2009.
Japan's Nikkei index rose 4.6% to 7367.12 as banking shares led the way.
Other regional markets also performed strongly, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 2.9% at 12,034.77, and South Korea's Kopsi index climbing 3%.
But analysts said the rally was little more than a temporary respite from recent heavy falls in global markets.

Wall Street bounce
"What you've seen today is mostly a technical bounce in markets after falling steeply recently, and I don't think this rally can be sustained," said Arjuna Mahendran at HSBC Private Bank.
"It's still far too early to predict that the global recession is over. The fundamentals are simply not in place," he added.
On Tuesday, US stocks enjoyed their best day of 2009 as banking giant Citigroup announced a profit for the first two months of the year.
The news pushed shares in Citigroup 37% higher, and banking stocks led a surge on the US markets.
The Dow Jones index closed up 379.44 points, or 5.8%, at 6,926.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 6.4%.
Early rises on Wall Street boosted stocks in Europe on Tuesday, with the markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris all up by about 5% at the close of trade.


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AIG cash disaster: London branch may have lost half a trillion dollars in bad debts

A London branch office of ailing US insurance giant AIG may have lost half a trillion dollars in bad debts.
The disastrous deals were built over in a decade as a small team of traders risked huge sums to insure dodgy US mortgages and other loans, according to American TV reports Joseph Cassano, the American who ran the British operation, is said to have made £200million on the London office's deals. He retired as the credit crunch crisis hit.

The Serious Fraud Office and US regulators are now said to be combing through the records of AIG's Mayfair-based Financial Products Group.
Aig, which is currently sponsoring Manchester United, has received £115billion in US government bail outs.


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Official warns Congress not to force lending

Treasury official warns Congress not to force banks into making loans deemed risky

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A top Treasury official told Congress Wednesday that the federal government should not micromanage banks that receive taxpayer assistance, a caution to lawmakers itching to see results from a $700 billion rescue program for the financial sector.
Neel Kashkari, interim assistant secretary for financial stability at Treasury, told a congressional oversight panel that banks should not be forced to make loans that bankers might deem risky.
"However well-intended, government officials are not positioned to make better commercial decisions than lenders in our communities," he told a subcommittee of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.
Kashkari, who was put in the job during the Bush administration, testified amid growing impatience among members of Congress who want evidence that the taxpayer money and the Treasury strategies are actually loosening credit markets.
Within weeks, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to unveil a new public-private investment fund that will be used to purchase illiquid assets, such as toxic mortgage related securities at the heart of the financial crisis. Kashkari said the private sector has voiced interest in the program and said he expects pension funds and mutual funds that hold retirement savings to be among the major investors.
"My assumption is that most of the capital will come from the savings of the American people," he said.
Kashkari said he didn't expect the private sector investment to get any advantage over the government's investment. "If the private sector wins, the taxpayer wins," he said. "If the taxpayer loses, the private sector loses."

Lawmakers voiced frustration with what they said was a continued lack of clarity from the Treasury on how banks were spending money they have received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Under the TARP initiative, the federal government has used more than $300 billion in taxpayer money to infuse financial institutions with cash, much of it by purchasing preferred stock and other assets.
Subcommittee chairman Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, complained that at least three financial institutions that have received TARP money -- Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., and JP Morgan Chase and Co. -- have made billions of dollars in foreign investments.
"If the banking system is in serious enough trouble to require massive amounts of federal support, shouldn't that federal support be channeled to the domestic economy?" Kucinich asked.
Kashkari said large financial institutions operate globally and that it was difficult to track whether foreign loans were made with U.S. deposits or foreign deposits because money "is fungible."
"We also have to be careful that if we set hard rules not letting our largest institutions do business abroad, other counties may say, OK, they're going to reciprocate and not let foreign banks then lend in America," he said.
In a television interview, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., disputed the notion that taxpayer money could not be tracked.
"If everything was fungible, you would never have any kind of cost accounting," he said on MSNBC. He argued that lawmakers don't want to block banks from investing in foreign entities.
"We are trying to stop them from using the money that's advanced by the American taxpayer overseas," he said.
The misgivings about Treasury's investments were bipartisan. Republicans and Democrats called for the banks to reveal how they were using the money and detail whether they were increasing lending.
"We don't know if $300 billion has changed anyone's behavior," said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif.
The Government Accountability Office said Treasury has improved transparency and accountability in its bank assistance programs for some of the largest institutions, but said it needs to do more to track the use of TARP money with hundreds of smaller banks.
Kashkari said Treasury has used TARP's existing capital purchase program to invest an average of $16 million in 489 banks. He said the program was making about 30 new investments a week. At the same time, about 200 banks have declined funds and several recipients have indicated a desire to pay back the federal funds early. Many have cited the number of government restrictions that the Obama administration has attached to the capital injections and the fear that other limits may be added.


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