World cotton demand may fall 21pc

Lower production in cotton-exporting countries would not impact global supplies as demand for world cotton trade is expected to drop by 21 per cent to 6.6 million tons in 2008-09 due to recession in developed countries.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), in its monthly forecast on cotton trade, states cotton imports are affected by weak demand from consuming countries and lower production in exporting countries. China (mainland), the largest cotton importer, is expected to import 1.5 million tons this season, 41 per cent less than in 2007-08. India and Uzbekistan, the second and third largest exporters of cotton, are expected to ship around 40 per cent less cotton this season than the last.

However, the US, the largest exporter, will be relatively less affected by the drop in demand as it is expected to ship 2.6 million tons in 2008-09, 12 per cent less than last season, despite a sharp fall in production. This probably is due to highaer demand for its long-staple Puma cotton.

Cotton imports in Pakistan are also expected to decline due to lower export orders and high input costs coupled with shortage of energy and power. The purchase of yarn by the value-added sector has also declined due to same reasons. The ICAC Price Model 2007 has forecast a 16 per cent fall in season-average Cotlook A Index in 2008-09 to 61 cents per pound.
World cotton area is also projected to continue to shrink in 2009-10. Declining cotton returns, more attractive prices for competing crops and expected difficulties to finance production inputs are encouraging farmers to continue switching to alternative crops, the statement concludes.

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